PRELIMINARY 2019 SALMON OUTLOOK

Every year, DFO puts together salmon stats from across the province and ranks each area according to health and fishing opportunities on a scale from 1 to 4. Three and four are approaching health or healthy, and thus where fishing can be anticipated.

It is an elaborate and costly process requiring good statistics in the many outlook units (OU) across the province. Overall, I would say that our salmon have been dwindling away for a very long time, and the four big issues are: freshwater habitat restoration, DFO, fish farms and climate change.

As you will know from the SRKW issue, DFO, in Ottawa, (this distinction needs always be made as there are loads of good DFO people in BC) is trying to feed extinction level killer whales with extinction level Fraser chinook salmon and eliminating fishing opportunities. It was their responsibility to avoid this situation, but they failed, and have done so for a very long time. It should not have gotten to this situation, and without some form of enhancement, it is unlikely the problem will be solved.

Here is a post I did on the SRKW issue, and the solutions: http://fishfarmnews.blogspot.com/2018/11/southern-resident-killer-whales-sport.html. Since writing it I have received input from some of the environmental organizations, and include, at the bottom, their take, which does not, in some cases, agree with what I have concluded, and you should consider reading what they have to say.

The Salmon Outlook says, in summary:

“A total of 91 Outlook Units (OUs) were considered with 82 OUs receiving an outlook category assignment. Eight (8) OUs were data deficient (ND), and one (1) Pink OU was not applicable given that 2019 is the off-cycle year for this group (NA). Sixteen (16) Outlook Units are expected to be at or above target abundance (categories 3, 3/4, 4), while 39 are expected to be of some conservation concern (categories 1, 1/2, 2). The remaining 27 Outlook Units have mixed outlook levels (categories 1/3, 1/4, 2/3, 2/4). Overall, the outlook for 2019 has declined relative to the previous outlook (2018 for most species but 2017 for Pink Salmon).

Five (5) Outlook Units improved in category (Sockeye: Somass, WCVI-Other, Skeena-Wild; Chinook: Alsek; Coho: WCVI). Twenty-five (25) units declined in category (Sockeye: Early Summer - North Thompson, South Thompson, Mid and Upper Fraser, Summer - Late Stuart, Nechako, Quesnel, Harrison, Raft, Fall - South Thompson, Birkenhead, as well as Okanagan and Coastal Areas 3 to 6; Coho: Area 3, Haida Gwaii - East (Area 2 East), Skeena, Skeena – High Interior; Pink: Fraser, Georgia Strait – East, West, North Coast Areas 3 to 6; Chum: Fraser River, Johnstone Strait Area and Mainland Inlets, Coastal Areas 5 & 6, Areas 7 to 10, Yukon).”

The document is a full 32 pages of technical information and you can get it from DFO.

So, here are the places we can expect good fishing opportunities in 2019:

Sockeye: the best plan this year is to take your boat over the hump to Port Alberni as the Somass run is in good shape this year. Typically, this is a late May, and June fishery, at China Creek, mid-channel and so on. The full combat armour Papermill Dam fishery for shore anglers will also see some retention, at this agreed tidal limit on the Somass. Fishing commences when there are 200,000 sockeye in the approach waters, and things look good this year. The 2015 four-year olds went to sea as the Blob was declining, and their salt water time was under a La Nina, cold water regime, and this is the reason for their having done well.

There are a few components of the Fraser run, which has more than 100 subcomponents, that are okay. The Summer Chilko run looks to exceed 429,000 females; however, as stocks mingle, and the rest are not doing well, don’t expect fishing opportunities.

Chinook: on Vancouver Island, your best bets to tow your boat are to the hatchery river waters: Conuma, Robertson Creek and Nitinat, meaning fishing West coast Van Isle (WCVI) in the terminal areas of Nootka and Barkley sounds, and the Nitinat Bar, the latter from Port Renfrew or Bamfield. The 2018 run for the Nitinat put 20,000 in the river, and thus suggests that the saltwater terminal fishery would have been good. 

Note that outside waters for the three areas can get good and rough, so fish the rockpiles early in the morning and expect to have left the outside by noon. Later, as fish congregate in inside waters prior to entering their rivers, you can expect terminal fisheries, where authorized. Moutcha Bay at the Conuma provides a good safe place to fish. Even fly fishers with inflatable craft can catch chinook as they rocket around the bay filled with hormones.

Georgia Strait has a number of hatchery systems and fishable numbers from Campbell/Quinsam, Puntledge, Big Q, Little Q and Cowichan. These systems are in the 5,000 to 7,000 fish range so terminal mop up fisheries seem likely. The Cowichan has had a surprising turnaround, and it is mostly the wild chinook that have done well, which is what we want to see. The Puntledge looks to return fall chinook exceeding 10,000 fish (hatchery derived). 

When one considers that adult chinook are in the 20 plus pound range, it only takes one fish to make the day a success. Savvy insiders who beach-fish for chinook, may do as well or better than those in boats. Estuarial river mouths are, after all, choke points, and that factor always improves the chances of catching fish.

Note that the inside rivers also have spring and early summer chinook, in small numbers, and this may affect opening dates for targeting the later fish of higher numbers. Always look at the regs before making plans to take the fish by force.

Coho: WCVI wild coho appear to be in better shape than the rest of the province. Having said this, I would not plan a trip based on terminal coho. As we typically go to fish for chinook and halibut, coho fishing is secondary, though a day with ‘silly’ coho fishing is great fun. Inside hatchery rivers may also provide some terminal coho fun.

Pink: As 2019 is an odd year, the Fraser River pink run will return and put fish in the boat. Average is 13.9M, but the 2017 return, which puts good pink fishing in Juan de Fuca Strait, was only, if my memory is correct, 4.3M, in other words poor, even though most people caught some. Plan to fish in the high percentage days of August.

North-Island estuaries are typically even year dominant for pinks. Hence, they will not provide big numbers this year. Having said this, Amor de Cosmos, Salmon and Campbell/Quinsam will provide fish for on-foot anglers, and some terminal trolling. Anyone like me who does the north island in July/August for beach fishing will find some fish, but also, make sure to have a half dozen back up plans for local rivers. 

Also, remember that the Campbell is much the same as it was in the day of Haig-Brown, so the Upper Island, Island, Sandy Beach and Fence Line runs can provide a nostalgic day of fishing in waters that look pretty much the same as in his era. The reason is that this is a controlled flow river, and logging gravel that has changed so many other rivers doesn’t get a chance to do that here; the river shoots small rocks through, and there is a lake above, where other rivers have logged slopes.

Chum: retention possibilities exist in the Brown’s Bay Chum Madness Johnstone Strait waters, which pass through Fraser chum. While 2017 put less than the expected 800,000 for a terminal escapement figure, with the passing of the Blob in offshore waters, 2019 could put more fish in this max fun fishery. And it is best on bright sunny days in September/October.

Secondarily, the Nitinat hatchery is a major chum producer, and the images I put on onfishingdcreid show a lot of handsome chum in the 10- to 15-pound range from 2018. Retention possibilities exist for both trolling and in-river. Check the regs before going to the trouble of towing your boat out to the Ditidaht campground, over a long, dusty road. 

This post goes with the manuscript A Man And His River: http://onfishingdcreid.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-man-and-his-river-2.html. This one has the hatchery take for chum on the lake, along with the in-river chinook: http://onfishingdcreid.blogspot.com/2018/10/harvesting-salmon-for-broodstock.html.